SHFE tin is boosted in the short term by ore supply tightness and macro sentiment, but the off-season demand and inventory pressure limit the height of the rebound [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on June 9, 2025

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) maintained a narrow fluctuation rangebound in the morning session today. As of the midday close, it was quoted at 263,270 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.13% from the previous trading day. Market sentiment remained cautious, with an intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts.

Ore supply tightness persists: Although the Wa region of Myanmar initiated production resumption procedures at the end of April, the actual capacity release fell short of expectations due to strict inspections at the China-Myanmar border and slow progress in obtaining mining licenses. Despite phased production resumptions at the Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the long transportation cycle for African ore sources (approximately 1.5-2 months) has limited port arrivals in June.

Off-season effects emerge in the electronics industry: June is traditionally an off-season for consumer electronics, with solder companies experiencing weaker order volumes MoM. Demand for PV welding strips has declined due to a slowdown in installation growth rates. However, accelerated localization of semiconductors and demand for AI chips have provided marginal support for high-purity tin.

Sluggish trading in the spot market: Spot premiums narrowed in the morning session, with the Yunnan Tin brand commanding premiums of 1,200-1,500 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract. Downstream restocking willingness on price dips was limited, with traders reporting that transactions were dominated by just-in-time procurement.

Midday Summary: SHFE tin is expected to be supported by ore supply tightness and macro sentiment in the short term. However, the off-season demand and inventory pressure will limit the rebound height. It is anticipated that the contract will maintain sideways movement in the afternoon. Investors are advised to focus on swing trading, keeping an eye on Sino-US tariff policies and the progress of production resumptions in Myanmar.